Internal Review Reveals Ten Years of Southern California Surf Predictions Were Generated by a Committee That Described Its Methodology as Intuitive and Also Slightly Spiritual

Bohiney Magazine | The London Prat

LOS ANGELES, CALIFORNIA — The Southern California Surf Forecast Task Force released a stunning internal review Thursday acknowledging that the organisation has not had a clear working understanding of El Nino since approximately 2015 and that the majority of its long-range surf predictions over the past decade have been generated using what the review diplomatically described as “experiential intuition combined with pattern recognition and a not insignificant degree of optimism.” Task Force Director Warren Pelham, presenting the findings at a press conference he opened by saying “so here is the thing,” confirmed that the committee responsible for seasonal forecasting had for several years consisted of three individuals who described their methodology during the review as “we kind of felt it,” “I just knew,” and “honestly I go by the colour of the sky in the early morning and whether my knee hurts, and my knee has been remarkably reliable.”

What El Nino Actually Does and Why Nobody Fully Agrees

El Nino, the periodic warming of Pacific Ocean surface temperatures that influences weather and wave patterns across the western United States, is a legitimately complex oceanographic and atmospheric phenomenon that actual climate scientists spend careers studying and still frequently disagree about in their specific near-term predictions. This fact, the Task Force review noted, had provided effective cover for the committee’s methodology for years, since the scientific community’s own forecasts carried sufficient uncertainty that a committee operating on knee-based assessment and sky colour had, statistically, about the same hit rate. “We were not wrong more than the real forecasters,” Pelham said. “We were wrong in the same amounts. That is actually harder than it sounds.”

The review was triggered after a December internal email, accidentally forwarded to the full mailing list, revealed that the committee’s lead forecaster had based a widely circulated winter swell prediction on what he described as “a really compelling dream I had about big south swells and also a conversation with a stranger at a taco stand in Ensenada who seemed very confident.” The email was enthusiastically received by the surfing community, which found it relatable, and less enthusiastically received by the Task Force’s grant funding body, which found it legally complicated.

A Decade of Vibes-Based Forecasting: The Highlights

The review catalogued notable instances of intuition-based forecasting across the decade, several of which the committee had previously presented as data-driven analysis. The Great Swell of January 2019, which the Task Force had predicted with unusual precision six weeks in advance, was revealed to have been forecast after committee member Dana Kowalski attended a “gut feeling workshop” in Topanga Canyon and returned, in her words, “very certain about January.” The workshop’s facilitator, reached for comment, said she was “honoured to have played a role in Southern California surf history” and that her next workshop was scheduled for September and spaces were filling up.

The Task Force’s disastrous February 2022 prediction of “historic swells, prepare accordingly,” which resulted in approximately four thousand surfers travelling to the California coast for what turned out to be two-foot onshore wind chop, was attributed in the review to an overreliance on what the committee’s notes described as “strong collective energy about February” following a team meeting that one member recalled as “honestly pretty electric, we were all very sure.”

The Science of Actually Forecasting Swells

Legitimate long-range surf forecasting relies on satellite sea surface temperature data, atmospheric pressure modelling, and wave propagation algorithms developed by oceanographers and meteorologists who do not, as a rule, attend gut feeling workshops. According to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, El Nino events are monitored through the Nino3.4 sea surface temperature index and a network of buoys across the equatorial Pacific that provide continuous data used by modellers globally. The agency confirmed it does not consult the Southern California Surf Forecast Task Force in preparing its own assessments and was not previously aware the Task Force existed.

The Scripps Institution of Oceanography, which conducts legitimate research into Pacific Ocean climate patterns and has actual scientists who study El Nino as their full-time professional occupation, released a statement noting that it welcomes public interest in oceanographic science and is happy to explain El Nino to anyone who would like to understand it. The statement did not mention the Task Force by name but did include a link to an explainer document titled “What El Nino Is and Is Not,” which observers noted was unusually specific for a press release.

What Happens to the Task Force Now

Director Pelham said the Task Force intends to reform its methodology by consulting actual meteorological data, partnering with a university research programme, and reducing its reliance on knee-based forecasting, “not because the knee has been wrong, but because we understand that the knee raises questions in a grant funding context.” He said the committee member whose dream triggered the review had been reassigned to the Task Force’s outreach division, where his forecasting instincts “may be better applied in a communications role.” The knee’s owner confirmed his knee was currently suggesting a significant south swell in August and that he stood by it. Surfers across Southern California said they appreciated the transparency and would probably check the actual buoy data first but would absolutely also check the knee.

Follow the full absurdity of Southern California surf culture at Bohiney Magazine and catch the satirical dispatches at The London Prat’s complete guide to satirical journalism.

Further vibes-based analysis available at The Daily Mash, whose own editorial process we suspect operates on broadly similar principles.

SOURCE: https://bohiney.com/el-nino-task-force-vibes-forecast/