Super El Nino Hype Meets Forecast Reality in a Collision That Produces Clickbait and Uncertainty
Bohiney Magazine | The London Prat
The El Nino That Will Be Amazing or Possibly Not, Depending on Which Forecast You Read
SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA — El Nino is coming. This has been confirmed by NOAA, by Surfline, by several independent forecast services, by three separate surf media outlets, and by your uncle who read something about it. What remains unconfirmed is how large, how consistent, how long-lasting, and how much of the enthusiastic coverage constitutes accurate meteorological prediction versus the surf media’s well-documented tendency to treat any above-average swell forecast as a generational opportunity.
The WaveCast’s honest assessment, noted in recent forecasts, directly addressed what it called “Super El Nino” hype: “The recent ‘if it bleeds it leads’ headline hype doesn’t tell the full story, favoring clickbait over facts.” This is unusually self-aware language for a forecast service and deserves recognition. The fact is that El Nino years in Southern California produce more consistent northwest swells and a higher probability of large winter events than neutral years. They do not guarantee any specific event. They shift the probability distribution. The surf media translates “shifted probability distribution” into “this winter is going to be absolutely epic” because one of these generates subscription renewals and the other one is accurate.
The Historical Pattern
The 2015-2016 El Nino, which was classified as one of the strongest on record, produced exceptional surf at some California spots and disappointing surf at others, depending on the specific swell windows, the break’s orientation, and the wind conditions on any given day. The overall season was excellent. It was not the nonstop parade of historic swells that the pre-season coverage suggested it might be. This is how weather works. Markets rally on hope and panic on facts; the surf market rallies on swell forecasts and produces reality at intervals. Powerful predictive tools change outcomes — forecast models are better than they were in 2015 — but the gap between the probability distribution and the specific day you drove two hours to get to your spot remains. El Nino is coming. It will be good. How good depends on Thursday.