Forecasters Say ‘Hopes Are High’; Surfers Heard ‘Confirmed’; Partners Heard ‘Here We Go Again’

From Bohiney Magazine and The London Prat.

SANTA MONICA, CA — The Southern California surf community officially entered its seasonal state of speculative optimism this week following reports that a “super” El Nino event is being forecast for the end of 2026 into 2027, producing what forecasters are calling “elevated possibility” and what surfers are calling “confirmed” and what their partners are calling “I know where this is going.”

The speculation, which has been circulating through surf forecasting communities since late spring, projects Pacific sea surface temperatures sufficient to generate the kind of sustained northwest swell that Southern California breaks see once or twice a decade and that every Southern California surfer remembers in the specific way that people remember transcendent events that justify all preceding mediocrity.

What a Super El Nino Actually Produces

During strong El Nino winters, Southern California typically sees increased storm frequency from the northwest, producing larger, more consistent swell at breaks that spend most of the year waiting for exactly this. Malibu, which is a right-point break that performs best in northwest swell, becomes world-class. Mavericks, already world-class, becomes what forecasters call “terrifying in the best possible way.” The North Shore of Oahu, which is not Southern California but is directionally related to the same Pacific weather systems, sees the kind of surf that makes the professional tour’s winter events legendary.

In Southern California specifically, a super El Nino winter means: Rincon performs regularly. Sunset Point at Santa Cruz earns its name. The reef breaks at Trestles and Lowers see the kind of barrel sections that are normally reserved for highlight reels. And every surfer who has been patiently longboarding knee-high waves for the preceding spring and summer suddenly feels vindicated for not having developed additional hobbies.

The Difference Between ‘Speculated’ and ‘Confirmed’

The El Nino speculation is, at this stage, based on ocean temperature models that have suggested elevated probability of a strong El Nino event. The probability is not certainty. The difference between probability and certainty in surf forecasting is a distinction that the surfing community has historically not found useful to maintain, preferring to operate on the basis that anything is possible and that the correct response to possibility is preparation.

“The forecast said ‘hopes are high’ and I interpreted that as confirmed,” said Beau Currents, 33, of Encinitas, who had already booked a week off work in November on the basis of the El Nino speculation. “My boss asked why I was taking the time off. I said ‘surf season.’ She asked which season. I said ‘the one that’s being speculated about for November.’ She looked at me for a while.”

Currents said his boss had approved the time off. He interpreted this as another good sign.

What the Forecast Models Show

According to NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center, El Nino conditions are monitored through the Nino 3.4 sea surface temperature index. A strong El Nino is defined as a sustained departure of 1.5 degrees Celsius or more above average. A super El Nino has historically occurred when departures reach 2 degrees or more. The 1997-98 event, which produced the most significant Southern California surf season in modern memory, reached 2.4 degrees above average. The 2015-16 event reached 2.5. Models are currently tracking sea surface temperature trends with the attention of people watching a lottery draw in which they have a ticket and a reason to believe.

The Preparation Economy

El Nino speculation produces a specific consumer economy in Southern California: new boards purchased in anticipation of larger surf, wetsuits upgraded for colder winter water, fitness regimes initiated to ensure that when the swell comes, participants are ready rather than watching from the shore making the face of someone who should have started running in May. Board shapers report increased consultations in El Nino speculation periods. Fitness instructors near beach communities report upticks in enrollment. Partners of surfers report an increase in conversations that begin with “so there’s this thing about ocean temperatures.”

Fingers and toes are crossed across Southern California. The ocean has not confirmed whether it received the message.

More swell speculation: NewsThump.

The El Nino preparation economy also includes the psychological dimension: the period between speculated El Nino and confirmed El Nino is a period of productive hope that the surfing community navigates with the specific combination of optimism and realism that characterizes people who have learned not to tell their partners about every swell forecast but have not learned to stop checking them. The hope is genuine. The conditions it is hoping for are real and have happened before. The probability is not certainty. This combination — genuine possibility, recent historical precedent, uncertain timing — is exactly the kind of situation that the human mind manages poorly in terms of setting appropriate expectations and well in terms of motivating training, preparation, and equipment investment. The surf industry has understood this for decades. The El Nino speculation period is the surf industry’s best quarter.

The Southern California surf community continues to absorb, adapt, and carry on — through mediocre swells, regulatory frameworks, shark closures, parking apps, and wave pool openings — with the specific equanimity of people who have chosen to base a significant portion of their identity on an activity that the ocean controls and they do not. The ocean does not read the legislation, check the parking app, or acknowledge the renaissance. It produces what it produces. The surfers show up early. This has always been the arrangement and neither party has proposed changing it.

SOURCE: https://bohiney.com/