Forecasters cite past El Nino seasons that ‘rewrote the record book’; surfers note the book has been rewritten several times now

LOS ANGELES, CA

Southern California’s surfing community entered June in a state of managed anticipation after forecasters at Surfline issued their seasonal El Nino outlook, promising that “past very strong El Nino seasons rewrote the record book with memorable swells” and suggesting that “with another one forecast, we should expect something similar.” Surfers, who have received this particular communication before, responded with the specific brand of optimism reserved for things that might be incredible or might be a lot of hype and there is genuinely no way to know until the season plays out.

“They said this last year,” said Venice Beach regular Alicia Torres, 31, holding a coffee in the parking lot at 6:10 a.m. “And the year before. And honestly? Both years had some great swells. So they might be right. I’m choosing to believe they’re right. It costs nothing to believe and the alternative is pessimism, which is bad for your paddling.”

The El Nino Promise: A Glossary

For non-surfers, El Nino refers to a periodic warming of Pacific Ocean surface temperatures that alters atmospheric circulation patterns, generating increased storm activity and directing larger swells toward the California coast. In surf forecasting terms, “El Nino season” is roughly equivalent to “the good one” — a period when the ocean is supposed to produce waves significantly above average in size, frequency, and quality.

The phrase “rewrote the record book” appears in approximately 60 percent of all El Nino surf season previews, according to a review of forecasting archives. It is typically paired with “memorable swells,” “historic conditions,” and “once-in-a-decade opportunity,” which, if taken at face value, would suggest that once-in-a-decade conditions occur with increasing frequency, which is either an indication of genuinely improving conditions or a recalibration of the decade.

“We stand by our forecast,” said a Surfline spokesperson, when asked about the “record book” language. “The record book has been rewritten before. Records can be rewritten multiple times. That’s how records work.”

This is technically correct.

What the Current Swell Pattern Suggests

The early season evidence is, by objective measures, encouraging. A significant south swell brought the biggest waves of the year to The Wedge in Newport Beach in early June, with sets reaching 12 feet and briefly converting Dana Point Harbor into a surf venue. A Southern Hemisphere ground swell is currently delivering chest-to-head high surf at south-facing breaks. Forecasters at Swell Magnet are tracking multiple incoming systems, including a potentially significant SW ground swell for early July.

“The pattern looks good,” confirmed surf forecaster Dana Leigh, who has been predicting California surf since 2009. “I want to be responsible about this. I’m not going to say ‘record book.’ But I will say the foundation looks solid. The Southern Hemisphere is producing. The angles are favorable. The intervals are good. Something real might happen this summer.”

When asked to define “something real,” Leigh said “head high or better on a consistent basis with some legitimate XXL potential.” When asked when exactly, she said “when the ocean decides.” This is, ultimately, the only honest answer available to any surf forecaster.

The Community Prepares

Southern California’s surf community is preparing for the forecasted season in the usual ways: waxing boards, repairing leashes, arguing on forums about which breaks will be best on which swell angles, and purchasing wetsuits of disputed thickness. Big-wave surfers are waxing larger boards. Foam-top beginners are waxing foam tops. Everyone is watching the buoy data.

The World Surf League has not issued specific guidance on the El Nino forecast, as their competition schedule is set well in advance of seasonal conditions and they surf wherever the tour goes regardless of what the El Nino is doing. This is considered by many to be the single most sensible institutional position in professional surfing.

Final Assessment: Cautious Optimism, As Usual

Torres, finishing her coffee, said she would be at the beach regardless of what the season produced. She has been surfing Venice for eleven years. She has surfed through flat spells, through mediocre El Ninos, through one winter that produced nothing above head high for six straight weeks. She has also surfed through swells that genuinely made her understand why she chose this thing over every other hobby available to her.

“Could be a great year,” she said, walking toward the water. “Could be average. I’m going out either way. The ocean doesn’t owe you anything. You just show up and see what’s there.”

This is, in the end, the only surf forecast that matters.

Swell Forecasting: What Has Improved and What Hasn’t

The science of swell forecasting has advanced significantly over the past two decades. Modern wave models process atmospheric data from satellites, buoys, and weather stations to generate probabilistic forecasts that are measurably more accurate than what was available to surfers in the 1990s, when the primary forecasting tool was calling the local surf shop and asking the guy who answered the phone what it looked like out there. He usually knew. But the satellites know more.

What has not improved, despite the improved forecasting tools, is the gap between what the models predict and what surfers wish the models had predicted. The models say chest-high with occasional head-high sets. Surfers want head-high with occasional double-overhead sets. The models do not accommodate this preference. They report what is expected to happen based on available atmospheric data, not what would be most satisfying to the people reading the forecast. This is a fundamental design choice in meteorological modeling, and one that the surf community has been negotiating with for as long as accurate forecasts have been available.

Torres, already mentioned in an earlier dispatch, said she stopped being upset about swell forecasts “around 2019.” She now reads the forecast as information rather than a promise. This approach has dramatically improved her quality of life and has not meaningfully affected the waves, which arrive on their own schedule regardless of her emotional relationship with the forecast. The ocean, as always, operates independently of the feelings people have about it.

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SOURCE: https://bohiney.com